The tax on suppressors is gone. Full deregulation isn't — and the fight just moved from Congress to the courts. Here's what it means for the trade.
On January 1, H.R.1 dropped the federal transfer tax on suppressors, short-barreled rifles, and short-barreled shotguns from $200 to $0. Five months in, the single biggest cost barrier to an entire NFA category is simply gone — a demand catalyst the trade hasn't seen in years. But "tax-free" is not "deregulated": the Form 4, the background check, and the registry all remain. The real prize, pulling suppressors out of the NFA entirely, is stalled in Congress and now rides on a coordinated court fight. For dealers and SOTs, the opportunity is immediate; the structural shift is a 2026–27 story.
The clean read on post-stamp NFA volume arrives with May's NICS release around June 1; against a 2025 baseline of roughly 73,000 NFA checks a month, expect the figure to run well above it. We'll publish it when it's real rather than guess at a headline. The broader market backdrop: April's 2.13 million checks confirm demand is cooling toward normal but still sitting on a high plateau — a healthy floor for a category whose cost just dropped to zero.
H.R.1 zeroed the tax but left the NFA framework intact: you still file, still wait, still get registered. The bills that would actually remove suppressors from the NFA — the Hearing Protection Act (H.R. 3228) plus companions H.R. 404 and S. 364 — are all introduced and sitting in committee, none advancing. Plan inventory and customer messaging around "cheaper and faster to start," not "deregulated."
With Congress stalled, three suits — Brown, Jensen, and Roberts v. ATF — argue the registration requirement loses its constitutional footing once the tax that justified it hits $0. All three are active and pending, deliberately filed across circuits to manufacture a split and tee up Supreme Court review. This is the docket the trade should watch through 2026–27.
A zero-cost stamp pulls demand forward across the can makers — SilencerCo, Dead Air, Rugged, Banish — and lifts threaded-host SKUs. The remaining friction isn't price; it's wait times and customer education on a process that still exists. The dealers who can demystify "free stamp, here are the steps" win the first-time NFA buyer.