What's moving in the trade

The fast read on what moved in the firearms trade this week — built on primary-source data, not press releases.

On the Wire

• The slide is flattening, not falling. NSSF-adjusted checks have January down just 0.7% year-over-year and February up 3.5% — the first back-to-back signs the post-2021 unwind is finding a floor. For dealers, the read is "stabilizing at a high plateau," not "boom."
• Makers are beating a soft tape. Ruger's latest quarter posted revenue up 3.6% year-over-year, with CEO Todd Seyfert crediting execution "despite a challenging consumer environment." When a manufacturer grows while checks cool, that's a market-share and mix story worth watching.

Numbers in Play

April's 2,131,861 checks ran 6.7% below April 2025, and Q1 closed 4.2% under last year — but the market is still printing north of 2.1 million checks a month, far above any pre-2020 baseline. This is a high plateau cooling toward normal, not a demand cliff. On trade, April's Census figures show a $740M surplus in arms and ammunition, driven almost entirely by ammunition ($914M exported against $126M imported). The mirror image: the U.S. remains a net handgun importer — $60M in, $12M out.

On the Radar

The suppressor and SBR transfer tax went to $0 on January 1 under H.R.1, and it's already reshaping NFA volume. But the bigger prize — removing suppressors from the NFA entirely — is stuck in Congress: the Hearing Protection Act (H.R. 3228) and companions H.R. 404 and S. 364 are all introduced and sitting, none advancing. With the legislative lane jammed, the action has shifted to the courts, where Brown, Jensen, and Roberts v. ATF are all active and pending — a deliberate multi-circuit play to force a split and reach the Supreme Court. The full breakdown lands in Sunday's Long Range.

• The federal demand floor holds. DoD-led firearm and ammunition contracting runs regardless of the consumer cycle — Olin Winchester alone holds roughly $1.8B in active federal awards.
• Next data drop: May national NICS lands around June 1 — the month-complete read hits this Sunday's Long Range.